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Leadville Pacing Patterns and Charts

by Coach Weber

Is there such a thing as a 'perfectly paced' run at Leadville?

I'm sure that if everything were known about an individual's physical, mental and emotional fitness on race day, including their ability to ingest and process fluids, fuels, and electrolytes (assuming we knew exactly what his or her particular fluid, fuel and electrolyte needs were during each moment of the race); and, we could possibly monitor 'all systems' during the race (with on-board telemetry like a Formula One race car), then we might be able to perfectly control the intake of fluid, fuel and electrolytes while perfectly controlling the pace at just the right percentage of their VO2 max to arrive at that runner's optimal performance for entire 100 miles.

Unfortunately (fortunately?), such knowledge and systems do not presently exist.  Ultrarunning is still more art than science and as a result the runner at Leadville must generally rely on an almost intuitive 'internal feedback system' to choose an appropriate pace.

So, what to do?

In my opinion, the best plan for any runner attempting to run an optimal race at Leadville is to use the experience he or she has gained from training and racing to choose the most sustainable and efficient pace possible-moment by moment-on race day.   Remind yourself that you are going a full 100 miles, at altitude, and that at no time should you be overly stressed by the pace.  At no time-other than cresting Hope Pass (both ways) or climbing the Power Line (coming back) should you be 'huffing and puffing' and/or sweating profusely.  Keep the effort level dialed down to 'medium to low' and keep forever moving forward at a pace that results in even breathing and medium heart rate. Remember, that even Yiannis Kouros during the Sydney to Melbourne Race kept his pace down to the point where he was consistently at, or below, 57% of his VO2 max on day one of this intense race.  Kouros' VO2 max at the time was reported at 63.

For the majority of runners, steadily walking the uphills, smoothly running the downhills, and incorporating an 8 + 2 run/walk pattern on the 'flats' (start to May Queen; portions of the Hagerman Road; bottom of the Power Line to the Colorado Trail; much of the Colorado Trail between the Mt. Elbert Trailhead and Twin Lakes; the meadows between Twin Lakes and the start of the Hope Pass climb; the Winfield Road; and so forth on the way back) results in a near optimal pace at Leadville.  The 8 + 2 run/walk pattern is this:  run comfortably at a sustainable pace given the terrain and altitude for 8 minutes, then walk for 2 minutes.  Repeat the cycle.  If you encounter a small hill or rise during the 8 minute running portion, then dial down the pace to a walk until you top out.  The idea is to make sure that you are taking short, frequent walking breaks in order to reduce the stress of continual running and to allow yourself a rest.  Your body will appreciate the chance to recover and will reward you with a more even, stress-free performance start to finish.  The 8 + 2 pattern is something your pacer can assist you with on the way home (especially on the Half Moon Road).

It is a surprise to many new Leadville runners that even the leaders are walking almost all of Hope Pass and also the Power Line when coming back (note: going out, about mid-way up Hope Pass there are a couple runnable sections that the fittest of the fit do run). When walking, the leaders and front runners are not 'strolling'.  They powerfully walk the uphills and are able to top out without being totally trashed.  Cresting the ridge, the leaders and front runners resume running immediately and can sustain a quick, yet relaxed, pace throughout the descent.   So, if you are tempted to run any of the major up hills and you are not in a position to win the race...think twice.  The fittest of the fit aren't running up those hills, why should you?  And, if you are tempted to run even the minor up hills, I'd recommend you think twice.  Is the momentary gain worth the additional effort?   Usually it isn't.  If you are in doubt - for instance, what to do on the top section of Hagerman Road heading to the Power Line on the way out - then you might try a modified run/walk strategy:  four minutes comfortable running followed by a two minute walk break.   The run/walk patterns can be altered to keep the stress low and the recovery breaks frequent while still 'making time' with a bit of running. The important thing is to utilize walking breaks to frequently recover.

With all that said, let me give you some guidelines as to what particular aid station splits are expected for selected finish times:

The Go Fast Early and Die Later (probably) Pattern:

The first pattern is what I call the 'Go Fast Early and Die Later (probably)'.   That is, run fast on the front 40 to 60 miles of the race knowing you'll probably die and be walking (or really slowing down) most of the way after that.  The pattern could also be called 'The Classic' because it is the way many (most?) racers have approached Leadville.  Despite the negative overtones, the 'Go Fast Early and Die Later (probably)' pattern does work and is arguably the best plan for the runner who is a bit (very) unsure about handling the second half of the race.  It is the old 'put miles in the bank up front and withdraw big-time from the account late in the race' routine.   Unfortunately, many back-of -the-pack runners still find their 'account' completely overdrawn at Half Moon on the way back!  The splits are 40/60.  That is, 40% of the total time is spent running the first 50 miles; 60% of the total time is spent running the second 50 miles.

The I Think I Can...I Think I Can Pattern:

The next pattern is a more conservative approach compared to the above.   Perhaps I can call it the " I think I can...I think I can" pattern.   This pattern is appropriate for the experienced runner who is relatively sure they will finish the full 100, but are a bit unsure about how the second half will go due to under training, less than optimal altitude training, etc.  This runner wants to put some time in the bank, but not as radically as the "Run Fast and Die" runner. The "I think I can runner" believes that while the second half will be a tad messy, it will not be a complete walk-fest or an exponentially slower second half (as in what the 'Go Fast and Die' runner is purposefully hedging against).

Here's the pattern:

The Buckler Pattern

The Buckler Pattern is based on the splits of actual finishers at the 1998 Leadville Trail 100.  The chart is useful in answering questions like: what did the average 29:00-29:59 hour finisher at Leadville go through Winfield at?  (The answer is 12:20).  How long did it take the average 25:00-25:59 hour finisher to get from May Queen (86.5 miles) to the finish line?  The answer is 3:35 (25:29 - 21:54 = 3:35).   This Buckler Pattern is the 'down and dirty'.  It reveals how the average runner in any particular one hour time grouping got his or her belt buckle.  Is it the best way to run a particular goal time?  Should you follow the pattern for your time goal? Maybe; maybe not.  Remember it is the average.   Remember that in the 29:00 to 29:59 hour category, runners arrived at the 86.5 mile May Queen Aid Station anywhere from 23:48 (into the race) to 26:30.  The average time for all  29:00 to 29:59 hour finishers at the 1998 Leadville Trail 100 at May Queen was 25:38.

Some of the more studious readers might notice that the 19:00-19:59 average splits are almost identical to the 20:00-20:59 splits.  It is not a mistake.   It is simply that the 2 runners who finished in the 19:00-19:59 hour category pulled away on the second half of the race from the 6 runners who would finish in 20:00-20:59.  These two runners were Kirk Apt and John Carlson.  Their race for 2nd and 3rd place was one of the most hard-fought of any ever seen at Leadville.   Their race was also one of the most beautifully paced runs ever done at Leadville.  

Other questions arise from studying the chart.  Why is it that the runners who would finish in the 19:00-22:00 (a three hour spread) all averaged 1:55 through the 13.5 mile point?  Perhaps the reason is that those who are 'racing' the course know they must keep pace with the other contenders early on.  The contenders and pretenders are sorted out later.

Also interesting is how there are major surges from May Queen on by two groups:  those fighting for the Big Buckle in the 24:00-24:59 category and those fighting to beat the 30 hour cutoff in the 29:00 to 29:59 category.  The runners in the 24:00-24:59 category pushed the pace home from May Queen in an average of 3:18.   Compare that to the 23:00-23:59 average of 3:29!  Also, note how the 29:00-29:59 hour runners averaged 3:51 in from Mayqueen to the Finish.  That 3:51 average was faster than the 26, 27 and 28 hour group (3:53; 4:04; and, 3:56 respectively).   Shows you what a little extra motivation can do!  Nothing like the possibility of missing that 25 Hour Big Buckle or the 30 hour cutoff to get one moving again!

The Peterson Pattern

The final pattern is the most intriguing to me.  At first, it seems to break all the 'rules'.  Experienced Leadville runners  will be shocked at 'how slow' the opening splits are.  "No one runs like that", they will contend.  They are wrong.

I'll call this pattern "The Peterson" as it is based on Steve Peterson's running in the 1998 Leadville Trail 100.  Steve is known for his steady running.  In 1998, in his third consecutive win, Peterson spent 45.66% of his total time (18:29:21) to run to the 50 mile mark at Winfield.  He spent 54.34% on the second half. 

In a conversation I had with Steve at the pre-race weigh-in at the 1998 Leadville Trail 100, Steve said that Yo, his coach and mentor, had set up the splits in 1998 to set a course record.  Steve acknowledged that from Fish Hatchery at mile 76.5 he was unable to maintain the suggested splits and slowed considerably to the finish.   This being the case, if Steve had maintained the pace to arrive at the finish time in record time in 1998, then he would have run almost even 50-mile splits!  Is running even splits in a 100 mile race the way to run one's best time?  Perhaps so.   In 26.2 mile marathon running, it is remarkable how near even splits have resulted in some of the fastest times ever run.  Something to think about!

Here is how Steve ran the 1998 Leadville Trail 100:

"So what does have to do with me?" you might ask.

Notice the pattern.  Steve took 10% of his total time for the 1998 Leadville Trail 100 to get to May Queen.  It is 13.5% of the total race's distance.  If you look at the splits of the majority of runners at Leadville, you will find that most are completing the May Queen section in 7% to 8% of their total time.  If Peterson is taking 10%, why should a slower runner be running relatively faster (7%)?  And, Peterson has a very important advantage on the first 13.5 miles.  An advantage that should allow him to go even faster if he wanted to.  The advantage: he is near the front of the race where he is unimpeded by other runners on the Turquoise Lake Trail.  Therefore, he can run his own pace without having to slow down for other runners who are negotiating the obstacles causing 'backups' on the trail.  Most runners are doing 7% despite being caught in the inevitable traffic jam that occurs at mid-field along Turquoise Lake.

The question that must be asked is this: "Are most runners going too fast on the opening miles of the Leadville Trail 100?" My answer: "Depends on the runner and his or her fitness and ability to effectively fuel and hydrate start to finish.  Some may be best served by "Go Fast and Die (probably)" as they can only count on 40-60 decent miles with the remaining miles being a crap shoot.   Some may be best served by the "I think I can...I think I can" as they are 'pretty confident' of their ability to go the distance a, control the variables, and keep reasonably moving on the second half of the race without any major 'bonks' or blowups requiring extensive damage control and rest breaks at the aid stations (which are taken for granted in the "Go Fast and Die" pattern).  The "Peterson Pattern" may turn out to be the most effective of all patterns regardless of the runner's fitness, experience or control of the hydration and fueling variables.   However, it takes a certain confidence (wisdom?) to 'stand on the brakes' for the opening miles.  Of course there are many other possibilities...

Here is a chart that I developed that lists the splits for each of the aid stations and for various finishing times using  "The Peterson" Pattern: (times +/- up to 2 minutes)

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